Penn State in the Polls; Lions in Top 3

Everyone's rankings are out. Penn State's pantsing of Wisconsin gave the Nittany Lions quite a boost this week. I should point out that College Football News, and College Football Poll--two of the best, most accurate sites around--both rank Penn State No. 2:

USA Today/Coaches Poll - PSU No. 3 (+3)

Associated Press (via ESPN) - PSU No. 3 (+3)

The Sporting News - PSU No. 3 (+3)

CBS Sportsline - PSU No. 3 (+3)

College Football Poll - PSU No. 2 (+3)

Jeff Sagarin's Rankings - PSU No. 3 (+1)/No. 6 (+3), ELO Chess, used in BCS formula

College Football News -

2. Penn State (7-0)
W, at Wisconsin 48-7
next game: Michigan
The Ranking Should Be Higher Because … there's nothing else the team can do to look impressive. It has dominated everyone in the way, and a blowout win at Wisconsin just cements how good this team is. There was speed, power, and a whole bunch of "wow" moments.
The Ranking Should Be Lower Because .. to nitpick, Wisconsin didn't exactly look like Wisconsin. That was a bit of a lifeless team the Nittany Lions just blasted. Whatever ... if you want to put Penn State No. 1, there's no beef here.

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And when, exactly, did the Big Ten ask for your advice?

Sean Jackson, a CFN blogger, had a coherent (that was about it) write up on how the Big Ten can be better in 2008. Now, I won’t get into the fact that he’s just one of the many talking about the Big Ten as if it’s the MAC or even the Big East circa 2004. Jackson just made some fundamental mistakes in his assessment of the conference going into 2008, mistakes which should have been, at the very least, addressed by CFN before publishing the article.

“It’s essential that the Big Ten establishes a tone early in the season especially for the younger teams such as Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State. If the younger teams can develop confidence from the beginning of the year, it’ll make the Big Ten much more competitive. If not then history will repeat itself.”

Young? I’m not one to defend those two other teams from Michigan, but to lump Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State in the “young” category is just not correct. Penn State may return as many as 18 starters for 2008, and many more with starting experience. The Lions have an upperclassmen-laden depth chart this fall, and Jackson clearly gives away his failure to do even minimal research by labeling Penn State as a “younger” team in the Big Ten.

Michigan’s defense is shaping up to be one of the better in the conference in 2008, with the entire line returning, an excellent leader in MLB Obi Ezeh, two returning starting corners, and two safeties with starting/meaningful experience.

The Spartans return EIGHT starters on offense, including fantastic back Javon Ringer and signal caller Brian Hoyer. Meanwhile, the defense has six starters coming back, and three more with starting experience. I’ve even called for Michigan State to finish third in the Big Ten this year!

“For the past two years it’s been Ohio State, then Wisconsin and Michigan dueling for second. Illinois emerged last year as a pleasant surprise adding a fourth team to the mix, but from then on it gets ugly pretty quick. Want to prove the media wrong? Want to field teams in the BCS that will compete? Then the core of the conference needs to get better. Teams need to start challenging and keeping up with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois, in order to make this conference better.”

Has Jackson even watched a Big Ten football game the past two seasons? If I remember correctly, Illinois was 2-10 the year before last, and 2-10 the year before that! He also falls into the pack mentality by failing to recall that the past two seasons, Big Ten BCS teams have played USC twice, Florida, and LSU. I’m not so sure any other conference would do much better against those opponents. The only team that proved it deserved a shot against those two eventual national champions was USC, who’s still (as much as we’d like to ignore it after Vince Young tore them apart in ’05) in the middle of an incredible dynasty of dominance.

Just try to tell me that Oklahoma (which was blown out by Big East “weakling” West Virginia) should have played LSU last year, or Virginia Tech, or even Kansas (which lost to Missou) or Missouri (which lost--twice--to Oklahoma). USC was the only other choice to play in the BCS National Championship Game, and while they probably could have beaten LSU, the Trojans lost to Stanford at home, so the voters never would have gone for placing them ahead of Ohio State. And if you want to take the “voter-bias” point further, West Virginia should have also been given serious consideration, but because of the largely false assumption that the Big East can’t compete, the Mountaineers were left out.*

I don’t think that I’m as upset at Jackson, as it seems. It’s just this snowballing effect since Ohio State lost the 2007 national championship to an LSU team that was supposed to win it from the beginning. Jackson and CFN are just the latest to fall victim to this black hole of sensationalism in college football. There’s nothing wrong with the Big Ten. The SEC isn’t faster than holy hell. USC is still the best football team over the last six years. And don’t worry, next season the media will latch onto something else that will have one half of college football fans whining, and the other half cheering. If everything was so easily explained in this sport, why would any of us even care to watch?

*I won't include Illinois in this part of the conversation, due to the fact that the Rose Bowl goons made the horrible decision to invite the Illini to Pasadena last season. Yeah, the team was January-bowl good, but not hey-let's-play-USC good. The Big Ten should have only had one BCS representative in 2007, period.

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CFN predicts PSU vs. Auburn in Capital One

How great would it be to get revenge for 2003? The boys over at CFN think it's possible. Penn State in a rematch of the 2003 Captial One Bowl with Auburn would draw huge ratings, a packed house and, depending on whether or not these two teams play up to their potential, one of the best games of the bowl season. In fact, these two programs are the Big Ten-SEC standard for good teams that just can't catch a break.

From CFN:

Capital One Bowl
Jan. 1 / 1 p.m. Orlando, Fla. ABC
Tie-Ins: Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2
Way Too Early Projection: Penn State vs. Auburn
Top 5 Others Considered: 1) Wisconsin, 2) Tennessee, 3) LSU, 4) Georgia, 5) Florida

I could live with this. A New Years Day game would do Penn State well. A game against an SEC foe would allow the Lions to carry the Big Ten torch on their way to a fourth straight bowl victory. But if Penn State can't hack it in the horrid 2008 mid-season conference run of @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Ohio State and @ Iowa, there's still a chance at a January bowl.

Outback Bowl
Jan. 1 / 11 a.m. ET Tampa, Fla. ESPN
Tie-Ins: Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC
Way Too Early Projection: Michigan vs. LSU
Top 5 Others Considered: 1) Penn State, 2) Georgia, 3) Tennessee, 4) Auburn, 5) Florida

Some Penn State fans would be grossly disappointed with these two bowls. I too believe that Penn State has the talent to make an at-large BCS spot this season. However, San Antonio was not a place the Nittany Lions were aiming for, so any bowl after December 31 would be satisfactory for 2008.

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PSU prospects absent from CFN top 250

Very interesting list up on CFN (I know, I'm really harping on them lately) today, going over which players have a shot at the 2009 NFL Draft. Sure, there are names on there we as PSU fans expect to see, like Maurice Evans and Sean Lee. However, some names are on the list you wouldn't expect to see, and other that you would expect to see, aren't.

Here are the players who made the list:

239. Andrew Quarless - My guess is that his physical measurements will land him a free agent contract somewhere. But unless he turns his act around, he won't go anywhere.

218. AQ Shipley - This is really low, but not as low as you'd think. Pure centers rarely go high in the draft. Guards and tackles are where it's at these days.

113. Sean Lee - I still say, not bad for a guy who blew up his ACL and won't play for a full season.

22. Maurice Evans - I hope this isn't an early sign he's going to bolt early. My guess is that he'll stay an extra year and shoot up to a top-5 pick.

Now let's take a look at those who are not on this list:

Derrick Williams - This one baffles me. I know he hasn't lived up to the hype and win Heismans, but he's still fast and is a good wide receiver and returner. He just wasn't used correctly since 2005. He should at least be a 7th rounder.

Deon Butler - Another odd exclusion, he easily warrants a free agent spot, or a very late pick in the draft. He has good hands, is very tough, and will always play without saying boo.

Gerald Cadogan - This is sort of hit or miss. He's a good left tackle, and 2008 will go a long way in determining where he'll go--if at all--in the 2009 draft. If the line is as good as we think it will be, he could use that to boost his stock.

Anthony Scirrotto - With some of the names thrown into this list, I'm very surprised that he didn't get a spot somewhere in the 4th or 5th rounds. He's a monster hitter and has a knack for picking off passes just when your team needs it.

I know, where's Norwood, Sales, etc. Well, I'm just going on what the pro scouts might think. Although anything's possible between now and April, the chances are slim those guys will get picked up.

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Go to hell, CFN

It's happening again. Remember last spring, when everyone was saying that 2007 would be "the year?" You know, when Beano Cook said Penn State could win the National Championship? Well, it's starting already for 2008. I love PSU football, and deep down, I believe every year is a good chance to go undefeated. But to be so premature is just rediculous. In the quest for the most hits, CollegeFootballNews has jumped at the chance to proclaim PSU has a great chance to go bowling in Pasadena next January. The last time PSU went undefeated when it was supposed to was in 1994.

Spring Practice Begins: March 24 Game: April 19
The early spring buzz ... All the talk is about everything other than football. The off-the-field stuff has taken center stage with WR Chris Bell and starting DT Phil Taylor suspended because of academic issues. DT Chris Baker and LB Navorro Bowman were booted off the team for the time being after being charged with felony assault after a fight last fall, with CB Knowledge Timmons being charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct for a problem after the fight. Top safety Anthony Scirrotto agreed to a plea bargain after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of defiant trespass in an issue last April. If that wasn't enough, everyone is talking about what the succession plan is going to be after Joe Paterno decides he's done, while the Nittany Lion nation continues to hold its breath as it hopes beyond all reasonable hope that super-recruit Terrelle Pryor will sign and be the 2008 starting quarterback.

When was the last time PSU started a true freshman quarterback? Ummm. Exactly. I know the coaches and the school want to win, and soon, but there's hardly a chance Pryor would play. I think he would gladly take the redshirt, if he was promised to see playing time next to Devlin in '09 and '10. But who knows what he'll do. I sure don't.

The big spring question is ... Is there a ceiling on the 2008 team? The 2007 team blasted Wisconsin and collapsed against a motivated Michigan State, but for the most part it beat the teams it was supposed to, and lost to the better teams (Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State). The offense needs more pop, the defense needs to play up to its talent level game-in-and-game-out, and for a full sixty minutes, and there can't be any gaffes. It's all about gearing up for a huge midseason stretch with four road games in five weeks (Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa) after a home date against Illinois. The home oasis? Michigan.

When was the last time PSU beat Ohio State in the 'Shoe. Ummm. My parents were newlyweds and Grease was the newest box office hit. Unless PSU plays out-of-this-world better, and OSU plays way below its potential, there's at least one win PSU won't get. And as I've said before, this will be just another "if-we-can't-beat-Michigan-this-year" for the ump-teenth time. So, yet again, it will all come down to Michigan.

The most important position to watch is ... Quarterback. Anthony Morelli was the poster boy for Underwhelming Quarterbacks of America, but he wasn't bad and led the way to a few good seasons. Can Daryll Clark make the offense more exciting? Yes. Can he throw? No. Pat Devlin could quickly take over the No. 1 spot if he's consistent this spring, but Clark, because of his mobility, is an X factor. The team might live through his mistakes to go with his personality and potential.

Even though Paterno has no real loyalty to either quarterback right now, I think you'll see Devlin as the "starter" with Clark as the "starter II." Everyone, including me, loved the wrinkle PSU threw in by having Clark run the ball ala M-Rob style. The biggest question was "why the hell is Morelli even out there." I'll argue that later. But if Devlin and Clark are used in the same package, teams would actually have no freaking clue who will get the snap, as Devlin can run well, too.

Spring attitude... Is it possible to be a sleeper? Ohio State will be everyone's preseason Big Ten title pick, Michigan will get the spotlight with all the changes, and Wisconsin might be the thinking man's pick for the title, but Penn State could turn out to be strong enough to go to Pasadena. The defense will be stellar, the receiving corps might be the best in America, and the O line should be a strength. If the quarterback situation is settled early on, then shhhhhhhh, this will be the league's under-the-radar team to keep an eye on.

Fuck you, Pete Fiutak. I love your analysis, your unbiased approach, and consider CFN a daily must-read. But Fuck You!

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News and Notes: Lucky 13, 'Mitch King?' and Bobby 'Bolt in the Night' Petrino

Logic has prevailed. The Big Ten has ruled to migrate towards a 13-week schedule, beginning in 2009. This is not exactly a breakthrough, though, as all but two of the coaches--Lloyd Carr and "Little" Jimmy Tressel--have been pleading for a bye week since the NCAA went to 12 D-IA games in 2006.

"I really like the fact our players and coaches can go home for Thanksgiving," Tressel said on Nov. 20, three days after the Michigan game and two days before Thanksgiving. "We ask so much of these kids, to train all year long, and for them to get four days to just be kids with their parents, I put a lot of value on that," Tressel said.

Strange how the two coaches of Michigan and Ohio State coincidentally support keeping their rivalry in a more ratings-friendly slot. If that game was to move a week or two later--many of the national rivalries are played after Thanksgiving--would as many USC or UCLA, Florida or Florida State, Pitt or West Virginia fans watch? Sure, many would still, but you wouldn't get that overpowering hype of the "Third Week in November."

He won the Bednarik Award for a reason. Dan Connor was selected Big Ten Player of the Year by CollegeFootballNews.com--in my opinion, the best source for accurate, realistic analysis and predictions--along with first-team defense selections "Mitch" (Justin) King and Maurice Evans. Sean Lee missed out on a first team slot, as he came in a tight fourth, also being listed as the seventh best overall player in the conference, regardless of position.

What I, and many Penn State fans and coaches, have been saying is that the Lions haven't gotten their fair share of accolades for 2007. It could be in part that other players--OSU's James Laurinaitis, Vernon Gholston for example--have been getting more national press from the start, making it nearly impossible for other more deserving players to jump ahead of them. The three best players on the second-best defense in the Big Ten made CFN's all-conference squad. That's why it's the first Web site I check each morning.

Petrino returns to the SEC. Not many people remember this, but Bobby Petrino was the offensive coordinator at Auburn when the Tigers beat Penn State in the 2003 Capital One Bowl. You know, the guy who coached up a few named Campell, Brown and Williams. But, as you would expect, Petrino has stayed close to his SEC roots by copping out of his current job, and scooting to another in less than a media timeout. Don't blame Arkansas though. They needed a coach, badly. And they got a big name early enough for Petrino to get in some quality recruiting time.

Just for kicks, the SEC's highest-paid coaches (Saban, Miles, Petrino, Tuberville, Nutt) will make an estimated combined salary of $14.8 million in 2008. Their combined record from 2007 (including Petrino's NFL record) is 36-26. Is that really the bang those schools are looking to get from their buck? Remember, Joe Paterno makes a salary of just more than $500K. I think the SEC has an image problem.

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