Preview: No. 6 Penn State at Purdue

Kickoff: Sat., Oct. 4, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

Weather Forecast: Cool/Mild, Mostly Sunny.

Host: Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 2-2 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost at Notre Dame 38-21
Confirmed Injuries: Saf. Frank Duong (knee - doubtful), TE Kyle Adams
(knee - doubtful), LB Jason Werner (back - out), RB Jaycen Taylor (ACL
- out season)
Key Players: (offense) QB Curtis Painter, LT Garret Miller; (defense)
DTs Mike Neal/Ryan Baker, LB Anthony Heygood
Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 12th season at Purdue, 85-56; 18th year
overall, 124-86-1
Season Statistics:
Offense - 125.8 rush/278.2 pass/30.2 points per game
Defense - 194.5 rush/244.8 pass/36.2 points per game
TO Margin - (-1)

How PU will win -- Big plays on offense. Purdue has a good offense. Not great, maybe compared to the Boilermaker offenses the Big Ten is used to, but still good. They can put up points against Penn State, mainly using the pass to set up the run. All Curtis Painter has to do is nail a few first-down passes, getting the PSU secondary to back out of the box. Illinois used the pass game effectively, and actually had its biggest plays from the wide receivers. Ball control. The load will rest on Kory Sheets to keep the chains moving. Without a decent run game this week, Painter's arm can't beat Penn State. But ball control doesn't mean only the offense has to keep the ball. The Purdue defense has to force a few three-and-outs from Penn State, especially early in the game to set a good tone. If anything, it will get the crowd riled up.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 5-0 (1-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. No. 21 Illinois 38-24
Confirmed Injuries: DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee
- out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), G Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), WR
Jordan Norwood (leg - probable), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), Saf
Nick Sukay (foot - out)
Key Players: (offense) WR Derrick Williams, QBs Daryll Clark;
(defense) Saf. Anthony Scirrotto, DE Maurice Evans
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 377-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 267.6 rush/247.6 pass/49.8 points per game
Defense - 79.6 rush/172.6 pass/12.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+4)

How PSU will win -- The offensive line. Penn State's front has been the biggest key to averaging 49 points per game. Daryll Clark has three weeks to throw, and the running backs rarely get touched before reaching the linebackers. It will be up to the PSU OL to neutralize the PU tackles in the middle, and prevent any penetration. Fortunately for PSU, the middle of the line has been unstoppable. The defensive line. On the opposite side of the ball, but still up front, Penn State's defensive line is whole again. Last week, Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma were still working themselves back into real playing time. They will be full strength this week. Putting pressure on Painter and the PU pass game will help create down-and-distance situation beneficial to PSU. The line has been fantastic so far, considering all the losses, but was exposed a bit against the Illini. But Painter is definitely not Juice Williams.

What will happen -- Purdue will have trouble getting into a rhythm against Penn State, but will still move the ball. The lack of consistency will haunt PU all game long, as PSU will answer every score with one of its own. Eventually, Purdue won't be able to keep pace with Penn State, forcing the Boilermakers to move into come-back mode. Once that happens, the Penn State defense will pin its ears back, and tee off on Purdue's one-dimensional aerial attack. This game will be a good, quality Big Ten game, not a blow out. Both teams will come out to play, but one is just better than the other. It's that simple this week.

Prediction: No. 6 Penn State, 37 - Purdue, 28

Read More...

Summary only...

First Look: Purdue Boilermakers

In this week’s First Look, the Purdue Boilermakers offer up a unique situation. With a departing coach in Joe Tiller, a dynamite quarterback in Curtis Painter, and more question marks than answers, the boys from West Lafayette could surprise more than a few around the Big Ten in 2008. Following the first losing season in more than a decade, the Boilermakers rebounded with consecutive eight-win seasons, yet managed to be far less than impressive along the way. Can this team overcome some major obstacles and send Tiller out on a high note? I’m not sure it will be a season to remember, but there’s no reason Purdue couldn’t go bowling this Christmas.

1. Win one for the Tiller -- Teams do funny things when faced with its coach’s swan song. Joe Tiller took this program from the Big Ten basement to respectability, seemingly overnight with his “Basketball on Grass” philosophy. In one of my all-time favorite quotes, Tiller responded to doubts about his spread attack working in the Big Ten, “Maybe they didn’t know what November was like in Wyoming.” The funny thing about Tiller is that he never gets the credit he’s due when it comes to molding quarterbacks. Drew Brees and Kyle Orton had what it took, and now Curtis Painter is looking to be yet another Purdue signal-caller to go down in the Big Ten record books, all thanks to Tiller’s tutelage.

2. And speaking of quarterbacks -- If there’s one player taking the snaps this fall every team should fear, it’s Curtis Painter. Not only does he have the arm to chuck it around all day (3846 yds ’07), he can take off is he needs to (164 yds ’07). The problem for Painter this season is that Purdue loses four of its top five receivers from 2007 (Greg Orton returns, 752 yds). The running game should be even better, as Kory Sheets (859 yds ’07) and Jaycen Taylor (560 yds ’07) both come back, but their production depends on an offensive line which has the talent for big things this year. None of that matters, though, if the defense can’t stop anyone. This is a unit which loses five of its top six tacklers from 2007, and first-round NFL Draft pick Cliff Avril (8.5 sks ’07). The Boilermaker defense had enough trouble in 2007 (26.5 ppg/389.2 ypg), and I don’t see things looking up for 2008.

3. Make or break early on -- The 2008 Purdue football team will know right away just how good they are with a ton of rough games early on. A very good Oregon team comes to town in the second week, followed by a trip to South Bend, where the Irish are looking to revenge last year’s loss. Then the schedule really gets difficult. Penn State (first team to shut out Tiller-led team, 12-0 ’06) is in West Lafayette, then trips to Columbus to take on a stacked Buckeye team and Evanston where Northwestern might not give in so easy after Purdue scored 21 unanswered 4Q points last year (W 35-17). Purdue has also had trouble down the stretch in recent seasons, and with games against Michigan, at Iowa and Michigan State, and wrapping up hosting Indiana, it will take a bit of Tiller magic to turn around the November slump.

I’ll be traveling back to PA today, so I’ll try to have something up by Wednesday.

Next week’s First Look: Wisconsin Badgers

-First Look: Illinois Fighting Illini
-First Look: Temple Owls
-First Look: Syracuse Orange(men)
-First Look: Oregon State Beavers
-First Look: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Read More...

Summary only...

Article of the day

The Big Eleventh is easily one of my favorite Big Ten blogs. Don't ask me why, because I couldn't tell you exactly. Just go with it, and read this article about Joe Tiller's successor and the situation in West Lafayette. This is, in my own mind, one of the most underreported situations in college football today. Considering Tiller revolutionized northern football when he installed his "basketball on grass" in 1997, him getting the boot at Purdue is huge. That program was one of the most consistent in the '90s and 2000s, and what does he get for that? "Sorry, but we're looking for more." What? Purdue is now expecting to become Oklahoma, USC or even Penn State? Get real, you're known as the "Spoilermakers" for a reason. With that rant, I give you this fantastic article of the day:

If You Can't Beat Them, Fire Them.

That's the new Big Ten mandate, problem is only Ohio State is 'beating them', oh, and this doesn't apply to Penn State.

Purdue is set to announce Eastern Kentucky coach Danny Hope as Joe Tiller's successor. This isn't a Bobby Bowden-Jimbo Fisher successor plan, or even a Barry Alvarez-Bret Bielema deal. No, this is much more like "you're out old man, and since we like you we'll allow you to hang on for one more year."

This story has been totally overlooked by the major media outlets, mostly do to the MNC and other, more soap opera like coaching searches. That and the fact that no one ever really bought into the whole "Basketball on Grass" thing. Anyway, I started following it Tuesday over at Boiled Sports. For most of the week the lead candidate was Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst...which lead to a series of predictable yet hilarious Christ Jokes.

By most accounts Chryst was nervous about "not being a Purdue guy" the way Hope is. There was also concern that his whimpy girly mustach wouldn't hold up at a place like Purdue. The people printing the "You may have God, but we have Chryst!" Notre Dame game t-shirts took a huge hit when the announcement was made (credit on the t-shirt joke must of course go to Boiled Sports).

But this leads to a bigger issue, or trend I suppose I should say, that is taking hold around the Big Ten: everyone seems to be getting a new coach:

Illinois: Coach Ron Zook, hired 2005
Indiana: Coach Bill Lynch, hired 2007*
Iowa: Coach Kirk Ferentz, hired 1998
Michigan: Coach Rich Rodriguez, hired 2008
Michigan State: Coach Mark Dantonio, hired 2007
Minnesota: Coach Tim Brewster, hired 2007
Northwestern: Coach Pat Fitzgerald, hired 2006*
Ohio State: Coach Jim Tressel, hired 2001
Penn State: Coach Joe Paterno, hired 1966
Purdue: Coach Joe Tiller, out in 2009
Wisconsin: Coach Bret Bielema, hired 2006

This is really amazing when you sit down and look at it. Excluding JoePa, that is an average stay of 2.7 years. By most accounts, you really aren't even coaching you own team until after the third season. There are exactly four coaches** (Paterno, Tressel, Ferentz, and just now Zook) who are coaching Juniors and Seniors they recruited.

So what does this all mean? Well, for one thing, its not that surprising that the bottom half of the Big Ten sucks right now. It is filled with schools right in the shitty middle part of a coaching change. You have players recruited for one style forced to play another. The heart of the squad is made up of the always weak 'tweener' class that was recruited during the change.

Secondly, the Big Ten isn't in that much trouble if they can stay more competitive than the ACC, Big East and probably the Big XII with seven brand new coaches.

Finally, there is something a little more subtle that I worry about. Once these guys gain their footing, establish their recruiting lines and solidify their systems...well that will be right about the time Penn State goes through what will probably be the biggest circus of a coaching change in the history of sports. If we learned anything this year it's that neither Paterno nor the Penn State admins have a fucking clue how to handle it. Things might not be ugly, but they aren't going to be neat and clean. We are setting the successor up against some lofty odds. The "I want to play for Paterno thing" disappears. The stability of the other 10 programs will be used as a tool against us. I don't want to say I'm worried, but I am ready for it to be over with.

*I do understand it was tragity and now a decision to get new coaches for these schools.
**Yes, Tiller is still the coach, but he's a lame duck and that team kind of sucks right now anyway.

Later today or tomorrow morning, I'll try to have something up about how Penn State's recruiting class is looking so far for 2008.

Read More...

Summary only...

Penn State vs. Purdue, Preview

School: Purdue University (PU), Boilermakers
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 82-51 overall
Last Game: Defeated Northwestern, 35-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-27; 1-3 in bowls; 14-6 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Terrell Vinson, DE Cliff Avril, LB Anthony Heygood

Key Players, Offense: QB Curtis Painter, WR Dorien Bryant, RB Jaycen Taylor

What to look for: D – The PU defense hasn’t really ever lived up to matching the offense. In 2005, ALL 11 starters returned to PU, but because of personality issues, completely imploded becoming one of the worst units in the nation. This season, it’s been no different from many past seasons, where the defense is not horrible, but won’t win games for PU. Tiller needs his guys to put together their best performance of the season. Vinson not only leads the team in tackles, but also in INTs. A playmaker like that could spell trouble for the PSU offense. PU’s best defensive performance came at Iowa, giving up a mere 6 points, but that was against the Big Ten’s worst offense. Heygood has been huge for PU, racking up 11 TFL and 30 solo tackles. Blowing up the PSU run game in the backfield is a must, forcing Morelli to win the game, something he couldn’t do last week against OSU.

O – The PU offense has been Tiller’s bread and butter since he arrived in West Lafayette. Painter has emerged as one of the conference’s premier QBs, and although he struggled against the big two (UM and OSU), he’s had a fantastic year so far. Bryant had 7 rec. for 65 yards and a TD last week, but couldn’t get the big play PU needed against a mediocre NW team on the road. If Taylor can get a few good runs early against PSU, PU can mix it up on offense. When the run game doesn’t work, the PU pass game gets predictable. PU ran for 4 and 39 yards against OSU and UM, respectively, and was blown out in both. PSU’s defense is still one of the best in the nation, and won’t give PU much wiggle room. PU’s O-line has been pretty good this season, outside of the UM and OSU losses. Keeping Painter upright is critical if PU wants to walk out of Beaver Stadium with a win.

ST – Bryant is not only one of the best WRs in the nation, he’s one of the top KR as well. PU will want to work with good field position, especially if it’s starting on the student section’s end of the field. What is good in the KR game is lacking in the PR game, as PU ranks 81st in the country. In what could become a rough day against the PSU defense, points will come at a premium, so Summers will have to keep up his strong performance (9-12 FG, 42-42 PAT) against PSU.

C – Tiller has given PU a level of consistency it’s rarely had in the past. Since his hiring in 1997, he’s won more games than any PU coach before him. He’s only beaten PSU once in Happy Valley, a 20-13 decision in 2004 when PU was ranked No. 9 and PSU would finish 4-7. Tiller has to rally his troops and get on the board early. He should give Painter throws he can make, and throw in a few runs to mix it up.

Interesting Stat: Last season’s 12-0 loss to PSU was the first ever shutout of a Tiller-coached PU team.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 369-124-3
Last Game: Lost to Ohio State, 37-17
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: CB Lydell Sargeant, CB Justin King, DE Maurice Evans

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, WR Deon Butler, WR Derrick Williams

What to look for: D – The PSU defense is pissed off, rightfully so. PSU hasn’t given up that many points since allowing 41 to MSU in 2003, and hasn’t lost by that much since a 20-0 loss to UM in 2001. But, OSU is No. 1 for a reason, and PSU is 6-3 for a reason too. For the first time all season, LB Dan Connor is not on the key defensive players listed above. I think after last week’s horrid performance in the secondary, Sargeant and King will have to step up and play much smarter football. Evans fell behind in the conference sack race, mainly due to an awesome OSU front five, but this week should get back into the swing of things. PU doesn’t run the ball well against good teams, and while OSU didn’t roll over PSU, it did get 133 out of Chris Wells. Stop the run this week, and PSU can focus on getting pressure on the passing game.

O – What happened after that first drive last week? PSU looked calm, collected and confident in its first possession against OSU, driving the length of the field and scoring a go-ahead TD. Then it fell flat on its face. Morelli has to check down as well as he did on that first drive, and not make the crucial errors that sealed the OSU win. I was really surprised PSU didn’t try any deep passes, as Kinlaw ran very, very well against the nation’s best run defense. Against PU, Kinlaw has to stick to his game and get those 4-5 yards a pop. If this WR corpse (yes, corpse, b/c that’s what it seemed like last week) doesn’t wake up, PSU will finish 7-5. Too many times, key drops and failure to break away deep cost PSU points. I won’t blame it completely on the WRs though, as the line didn’t really help last week. PU can be taken apart on defense, as long as the PSU line and WRs get a hold of themselves.

ST – Finally, Paterno admitted KR/CB AJ Wallace needs to get the ball more. It’s too bad his 97-yard KR TD came after PSU lost the game. If Wallace doesn’t get a few touches this week against PU, either in the KR game or on offense, it will be a huge waste of talent. K Kevin Kelly and P Jeremy Boone have kept opponents pinned deep all season, but on a few scary occasions, the coverage teams have allowed big returns. With PU’s Bryant leading the conference in KR, and PU scoring twice on KR, PSU has to be careful. No cheap points this week.

C – Against OSU, Tom Bradley called easily his worst game ever, allowing the CBs to play 10-12 yards off the receivers. You just can’t do that against a passing team like PU. It’s necessary to jam PU and allow the pass rush to do its thing. Paterno has been rightfully criticized for his failure to go for it on 4th and 2 at the OSU 38, a call that could have changed the game. He can’t be conservative this week,

Interesting Stat: Rodney Kinlaw’s 81 net rushing yards is the second highest individual total against OSU in 2007. Washington’s Jake Locker gained the most in a game with 102 yards.

GAME PREDICTION: With a pissed off defense and a pissed off offense, PSU will come out and play like it is their last in Beaver Stadium–and should, considering, well, it is their last in Beaver Stadium. PSU has won 16 of 17 senior days, most of which were PSU blowouts. The PSU offense will start with a short field, and get on the board first despite a 3rd and long following a sack. 7-0 PSU. PU will answer with a nice little drive of its own, but fail again and again to convert deep in PSU territory. 14-6 at the half. PU will get the ball to start, but a Justin King INT will set up Morelli inside the PU 40. Kinlaw will take a draw down inside the 10. Two plays later, FB Dan Lawlor will punch it in. PU will make things interesting late in the third, with a TD and a 2pt conversion. 21-14, PSU. PU will kick a 4th quarter FG, but PSU will come right back and score on two long drives, eating up a ton of clock in the process.

PSU 31, PU 17

VEGAS:

PSU (-7) PU

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 26, PU 19

Read More...

Summary only...