Preview: No. 12 Penn State vs. No. 21 Illinois

Kickoff: Sat., Sept. 27. 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN GamePlan

Weather Forecast: High 50s, Strong Chance for Rain.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 4-0 (0-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Temple, 45-3
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) Saf. Anthony Scirrotto, DE Aaron Maybin
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 376-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 274.2 rush/264.2 pass/52.8 points per game
Defense - 52.2 rush/170 pass/10 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why PSU will win -- The offense: Yes, as any of you could have predicted, I think the Penn State offensive juggernaut will roll on this week. There are plenty of good offenses in the Big Ten, five of which are averaging more than 30 points per game. Then there’s PSU’s unit, which is cranking out 15 more points per game than the next best offense, Illinois’. Daryll Clark is the best quarterback, and he’ll be supported by the best rushing attack in the conference. Penn State leads the Big Ten in all four major categories. (Total off., Pass, Rush, PPG) The run defense: Illinois may average 224 yards per game on the ground, but most of that came from a 399-yard day vs. I-AA Eastern Illinois. Penn State’s front four has played far beyond anyone’s expectations, and will put tons of pressure on Juice Williams. More importantly, however, is that Penn State has the No. 1 rush defense in the Big Ten, mostly due to the line play. Big Ten sack leader Aaron Maybin, captain Josh Gaines, along with tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu will clamp down on the Illini run game.

Visitor: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 2-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Louisiana Lafayette 20-17
Injuries: OL Ryan Palmer (foot - out), DB Miami Thomas (ACL - out season), S Donsay Hardeman (knee - probable), WR Jeff Cumberland (foot - probable)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, RB Daniel Dufrene; (defense) LB Brit Miller, LB Martez Wilson
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 4th season at Illinois, 15-24; 7th year overall, 38-38
Season Statistics:
Offense - 224.7 rush/244 pass/36.3 points per game
Defense - 163 rush/208.3 pass/30 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)

Why Illinois will win -- Juice Williams: If this guy has a good game, the Illinois offense will have a great game. He’s probably the most improved passer in the Big Ten since his freshman season (<40% comp). Williams can’t afford to turn the ball over in a hostile Beaver Stadium, and I think he can do it. We all saw what he did to Ohio State in Columbus last year. Just like then, converting third downs will be the absolute key to this game for the Illini. Turnovers: Penn State hasn’t been taking good care of the ball lately (4 lost fum.), and Illinois must capitalize on that. What should really get the Illini anxious is that most of those fumbles came near the goal line, which would set them up nicely for quick, cheap point. Illinois has to score, and score a lot, and turnovers are a great way to do it.

What will happen: Illinois has played in very intimidating places (Columbus vs. No. 1 Ohio State, maybe?), but they have never played in front of a Penn State White Out, at night. Just ask those Buckeyes how things went in 2005. I think Illinois will be able to move the ball, but fail to score enough touchdowns. Penn State, on the other hand, should be able to march up and down the field, almost at will against a porous Illini defense--dead last in the Big Ten in PPG. I said earlier that Juice Williams will have to play a near-perfect game to win this one... he won’t. Penn State isn’t taking Illinois for granted the way Ohio State did in 2007, and everyone knows these are two very good teams. Evan Royster will have the national-spotlight game to thrust himself into dark horse Heisman contention. But I think the Penn State offense will prove to college football that they’re for real.

Prediction: No. 12 Penn State, 44 - No. 21 Illinois, 23

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Blue & White Roundtable :: Big Ten opener

This week's BWRT is brought to you by the fine folks at TNL.

The usually unusual suspects:
There is No Name on My Jersey
Tangled Up in White and Blue
Y. F. Yurasko
Happy Hour Valley
Black Shoe Diaries
The Nittany Line
We Want the Lion
Zombie Nation
Nittany Whiteout

*warning - painfully obvious question alert* Penn State gets its first ‘real’ test this weekend facing a ranked opponent when the Fighting [None-Offensive-Mascot]s come to town. Gaze into your crystal ball and give us a short description on how Saturday night’s events will unfold. Or if you’re lazy just fire up NCAA 2009 and tell us what the Xbox thinks.

ZN: I'm not going into specifics, as that's why we all do our previews. What I will say is that Penn State will be fired up in front of a sell-out, drunken crowd. The offense will roll, but the defense might give up a few too many first downs. No one will care in the end though, as Penn State's signature 'bend, but don't break' style will hold true.

Saturday’s game is on the big stage at 8:00 with most of the football world watching. It’s a white out and Penn State is favored by two scores (as of Monday). Is this a lose-lose situation (the only way they could look good is by winning big) for Penn State or golden opportunity to show the world what the Spread HD is all about?

ZN: It's only a lose-lose if Penn State plays like crap. If Penn State plays a clean, strong game against a good team, it will look like a good win regardless of the score. It's all up to the defense to hold down the Illini. That's what people will look at most in the box score: How many did PSU's defense give up?

Now that all the fluff questions are out of the way do Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma get significant playing time?

ZN: Not significant, if at all. Penn State's defensive line has been playing lights-out, making us all forget that we're missing four of the best players on that front. Mo and Abe will dress, but probably not play.

Lightening Round

Back in 2007, Illinois Basketball fans made my skull crack open in rage slightly angered me when they befouled the statue of Joe Paterno. Do you hate the Illini like me or not so much?

ZN: Not so much. They only beat PSU for the third time ever last season. While I don't think they'll be as bad as they were in the last few seasons of Ron Turner's tenure, or the first two Ron Zook seasons, they're not on the level of Ohio State or Wisconsin. Next year, however, will be a different story.

It’s a night game please quantify the amount of alcohol you will consume before gametime (if you don’t drink please quantify the amount of fatty foods you will eat).

ZN: I like a plethora of everything, so, yeah...

Put it on the line – final score:

ZN: 187-5. Penn State stops Illinois on the one-yard line with two seconds left in the game. Rather than punt, Jeremy Boone runs around in the end zone before taking the safety. Time expires. For a real score prediction, check out my full game preview later today.

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No. 21 Penn State vs. Illinois Preview

School: University of Illinois (UI), Fighting Illini
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 3rd Year, 7-20-0
Last Game: Def. Indiana 27-14
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 13-45; 0-0 in bowls; 7-11 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB J Leman, DE Will Davis, CB Vontae Davis

Key Players, Offense: RB Rashard Mendenhall, QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn

What to look for: D – This unit has become night-and-day better than it has been in recent years. Lead by star LB Leman, the run defense is surrendering a mere 87 ypg. The most improved area is the most important, points per game, now at only 18.5. A surprisingly sharp secondary has forced opponents to avoid taking downfield shots, which could help against a team like PSU. UI should have instantly taken notice of how Michigan stuffed PSU’s run game, by pressuring the passing game. UI has some great playmakers on the front line, particularly in DE Davis. If Davis and Co. can get pressure on PSU’s QB, UI could be in for a fun afternoon. For once, UI can lean on its defense if it needs to. In 2006, UI held PSU’s offense down all day in a stellar effort, and will need that sort of outing in the 2007 edition.

O – UI should have beaten Missouri in the opener, but QB Williams left the game with an injury. Since, UI’s been on a tear, winning three in a row. It’s been amazing to watch Williams’ progress over the last year, and come December, might be up for some big recognition. That will, of course, depend on how he performs in the Big Ten season. UI has the best rush offense in the BT, but has done so with the spread, unlike UM, PSU and others. Combine Williams with last week’s BT POW RB Mendenhall, and you get more options than you can use. Throw in rising star Arrelious Benn, and the offense has a playmaking trio unlike anything it’s seen in a long time. UI had no trouble moving the ball against PSU in 2006, but mistakes killed any chance of a win. Now, the UI offense is much better at holding onto the ball. The UI offensive staff needs to go balls-out against PSU.

ST – This is where UI should worry. The FG unit has been great, but the return coverage could use a jump-start, allowing 19.1 yards per KOR and a monstrous 14.1 yards per PR. PSU has one of the best return games in the land, so UI has to spend some time preparing coverage schemes. If UI can’t win the field position battle, they’ll be in deep trouble.

C – HC Ron Zook has done a fantastic job with UI, regardless of his overall record. UI is on its longest winning streak since 2001, and it’s no fluke. Zook has established himself as one of the nation’s premiere recruiters. The talent is there to make a bowl run. Defense is Zook’s forte, and can show what he’s made of this week. UI needs to play this game with a lead, but if it can’t get ahead, the tools are there to come back.

Fun Stat: UI’s defensive PPG in Zook’s first season: 39.5. UI’s defensive PPG so far this season: 18.5.

School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 366-122-3
Last Game: Lost to Michigan, 14-9
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference

Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, DE/LB Jerome Hayes, CB Justin King

Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, Entire O-line, HC Joe Paterno

What to look for: D – The defense was NOT that bad against Michigan last week. What are you supposed to do when you start with a 10-yard field? Or, what about an offense that can’t give you any sort of help in time of possession? The only scary thing was when UM QB Mallet pulled it down and ran for the 1Q score. But that wasn’t expected from him, and this week PSU is completely prepared for UI QB Williams’ fantastic running ability. Any chance for a win will start with making UI one-dimensional. It will be more likely that DBs King, Sargeant, Scirrotto and Davis (or Rubin) would shut down the UI pass game. If that happens, the PSU front seven can overpower UI at the line. PSU has to stay on their assignments and not over-run UI’s plays.

O – This is the interesting match up. Where does PSU’s offense go from the UM loss? This won’t be a repeat of 2005, where UI was young and inept. QB Morelli can either make or break the season with this game, and has to settle down. But the real story with PSU is whether or not it can HOLD ON TO THE FREAKING BALL! Sorry, but it was very frustrating to watch PSU fumble away the UM game. I think Paterno and his staff are pissed off at RB Scott, but while RB Kinlaw will most likely start, Scott will see action again. On the depth chart, the RB slot is listed as Scott “or” Kinlaw. It was easy to blame the PSU O-line for not allowing enough time, or not opening holes against UM, but it came down to QB Morelli having a meltdown under any sort of pressure. I don’t believe that will happen again at UI. There’s not much to say about the WR corps, other than they need to stay patient and hope PSU can get them the ball more.

ST – This week it has to fire on all cylinders. Last week, K Kelly and P Boone had a very good game, but it was the return game that suffered. UI has had one glaring weakness, and that’s allowing big returns. If the return tandem of Williams and Wallace can break one loose and give the O a short field, the special teams will have done its job. P Boone will continue to be a key element to any win, especially against and UI offense that could struggle mightily against a good PSU D and a long field.

C – The worst players on the field at UM weren’t even wearing a uniform. The PSU coaching staff, mainly Paterno, called a horrible game. Conservative won’t work against UI. PSU needs to put points on the board, fast. This offense isn’t designed for comebacks, and the coaches know that. If PSU comes out and plays like they have a goal post up their ass, they’ll lose. It starts with the play calling.

Fun Stat: PSU scoring offense first 3 games: 45 ppg. PSU scoring offense last game: 9 points. Pathetic.

GAME PREDICTION: I got ahead of myself last week, thinking PSU would score against a mediocre UM defense. They could have, but the coaches didn’t let them. This week that should change. Whether or not UI lost the Mizzou game didn’t matter. It was still a close game against an OK team. None of UI’s opponents have had a defense like PSU does. UI QB Williams will make some great plays, but also some mistakes. Those mistakes will cost UI the game. PSU’s secondary will have their best game of the season, and will finally get the stats to show. PSU will easily cover the spread, but scare some folks doing it.

PSU 28, UI 18

VEGAS:

PSU (-3) UI

ACTUAL SCORE:

PSU 20, UI 27

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